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研究领域

我们通过观测分析和数值模拟,重点研究飑线和超级单体两类强对流系统的机理和可预报性,及其造成的短时强降水、强风、龙卷等灾害性天气的特征和发生发展过程
Through observational analyses and numerical simulation, we focus on the mechanism and predictability of squall lines and supercells, and their associated severe weathers, such as heavy rainfall, strong winds and tornadoes. 


研究组介绍录音PPT:智勇研究组介绍视频.pptx


我们重点关注:  中尺度气象: 强对流天气、台风;   数值天气预报: 集合预报, 可预报性;    资料同化: 集合卡尔曼滤波

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------  飑线 Squall line  ------

边界层辐合线相互作用如何影响对流的触发?
How does the interaction between surface convergence lines affect convection initiation?

复杂下垫面条件下对流触发的特征是什么?
What are the characteristics of convection initiation over complex underlying surface?

不同天气背景下飑线的形成和组织机制有何差异?
How different are the formation and organization mechanisms of squall lines in different synoptic environments?

squall.png

------  超级单体 Supercell  ------

超级单体的触发机制如何?
What is the initiation mechanism of supercells?

超级单体的可预报性如何?
What is the predictability of supercells?

台风与中纬度超级单体的发展机制有何差异?
How different are the evolution mechanism of supercells in tropical cyclone vs. middle latitude?

超级单体龙卷的形成机理是什么?
How does supercellular tornadoes form?

supercell.png

------  龙卷风 Tornado  ------

台风环境下的龙卷与中纬度龙卷有何异同?
What are the similarities and differences between tropical cyclone tornadoes vs. mid-latitude tornadoes?

我国龙卷的发生发展特征与美国有何异同?
What are the similarities and differences between tornadogenesis features in China vs. the United States?

------  暴雨 Heavyrain  ------

暖区暴雨、冷涡暴雨、极端暴雨的发生发展机理是什么?可预报性如何?
What are the evolution mechanism and predictability of warm-sector heavy rainfall,cold vortex heavy rainfall, and extreme rainfall?

heavyrain.png


------  Data Assimilation  ------

Data assimilation is a process through which observations and a numerical model and their associated uncertainties are used to estimate as accurately as possible the state of the atmospheric flow and its associated uncertainties (Talagrand 1997)

DA.jpg

Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is a very promising technique in data assimilation, which is a natural combination of ensemble forecast and Kalman filter: 

EnKF.jpg

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