Impact Factor:4.497
DOI number:10.1029/2020GL091712
Journal:Geophysical Research Letters
Abstract:There are increasing concerns about the uncertainty aerosols produced in forecasting precipitation, particularly hail. This study provides an assessment of the contribution of aerosols to
hail predictability by varying both the cloud condensation nuclei concentration (CCNC) and the initial meteorological conditions based on ensemble runs of 1,200 cloud-resolving simulations. Although the meteorological perturbations produce large uncertainties in both hail and total precipitation, varying CCNC by an order of magnitude causes even larger uncertainties than the meteorological perturbations. Changing CCNC modifies the predictability of hail precipitation, with higher predictability in moderately polluted environments compared with very clean and polluted environments. Perturbing the initial meteorological conditions does not qualitatively change how aerosols affect hail and total precipitation. Constraining the initial meteorological perturbations helps reduce CCNC-caused uncertainty. These findings suggest the importance of considering aerosol effects in severe weather simulations and forecasting.
Indexed by:Unit Twenty Basic Research
Discipline:Natural Science
First-Level Discipline:Atmospheric Sciences
Volume:48
Translation or Not:no
Included Journals:SCI
Date of Publication:2021-05-06