张庆红
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张庆红
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论文成果
Notable Contributions of Aerosols to the Predictability of Hail Precipitation
发布时间：2021-07-09点击次数：
影响因子：
4.497
DOI码：
10.1029/2020GL091712
发表刊物：
Geophysical Research Letters
摘要：
There are increasing concerns about the uncertainty aerosols produced in forecasting precipitation, particularly hail. This study provides an assessment of the contribution of aerosols to
hail predictability by varying both the cloud condensation nuclei concentration (CCNC) and the initial meteorological conditions based on ensemble runs of 1,200 cloud-resolving simulations. Although the meteorological perturbations produce large uncertainties in both hail and total precipitation, varying CCNC by an order of magnitude causes even larger uncertainties than the meteorological perturbations. Changing CCNC modifies the predictability of hail precipitation, with higher predictability in moderately polluted environments compared with very clean and polluted environments. Perturbing the initial meteorological conditions does not qualitatively change how aerosols affect hail and total precipitation. Constraining the initial meteorological perturbations helps reduce CCNC-caused uncertainty. These findings suggest the importance of considering aerosol effects in severe weather simulations and forecasting.
论文类型：
基础研究
学科门类：
理学
一级学科：
大气科学
卷号：
48
是否译文：
否
发表时间：
2021-05-06
收录刊物：
SCI
附件：